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dc.contributor.authorDiaz-Jimenez, Julio 
dc.contributor.authorCarmona-Alferez, Rocio 
dc.contributor.authorMirón, I J
dc.contributor.authorLuna, M Y
dc.contributor.authorLinares-Gil, Cristina
dc.identifier.citationEnviron Int. 2018 Jul;116:10-17.es_ES
dc.description.abstractMany of the studies that analyze the future impact of climate change on mortality assume that the temperature that constitutes a heat wave will not change over time. This is unlikely, however, given the process of adapting to heat changes, prevention plans, and improvements in social and health infrastructure. The objective of this study is to analyze whether, during the 1983-2013 period, there has been a temporal change in the maximum daily temperatures that constitute a heat wave (Tthreshold) in Spain, and to investigate whether there has been variation in the attributable risk (AR) associated with mortality due to high temperatures in this period. This study uses daily mortality data for natural causes except accidents CIEX: A00-R99 in municipalities of over 10,000 inhabitants in 10 Spanish provinces and maximum temperature data from observatories located in province capitals. The time series is divided into three periods: 1983-1992, 1993-2003 and 2004-2013. For each period and each province, the value of Tthreshold was calculated using scatter-plot diagram of the daily mortality pre-whitened series. For each period and each province capitals, it has been calculated the number of heat waves and quantifying the impact on mortality through generalized linear model (GLM) methodology with the Poisson regression link. These models permits obtained the relative risks (RR) and attributable risks (AR). Via a meta-analysis, using the Global RR and AR were calculated the heat impact for the total of the 10 provinces. The results show that in the first two periods RR remained constant RR: 1.14 (CI95%: 1.09 1.19) and RR: 1.14 (CI95%: 1.10 1.18), while the third period shows a sharp decrease with respect to the prior two periods RR: 1.01 (CI95%: 1.00 1.01); the difference is statistically significant. In Spain there has been a sharp decrease in mortality attributable to heat over the past 10 years. The observed variation in RR puts into question the results of numerous studies that analyze the future impact of heat on mortality in different temporal scenarios and show it to be constant over time.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipThe authors gratefully acknowledge the Project ENPY 1133/16 and the Project ENPY 107/18 from the Carlos III Institute of Health.es_ES
dc.publisherElsevier es_ES
dc.subjectDaily mortalityes_ES
dc.subjectHeat waveses_ES
dc.subjectImpact assessmentes_ES
dc.subjectPrevention planses_ES
dc.subjectTime trendes_ES
dc.subject.meshHumans es_ES
dc.subject.meshMortality es_ES
dc.subject.meshRetrospective Studies es_ES
dc.subject.meshSpain es_ES
dc.subject.meshExtreme Heat es_ES
dc.titleTime trend in the impact of heat waves on daily mortality in Spain for a period of over thirty years (1983-2013)es_ES
dc.typejournal articlees_ES
dc.rights.licenseAtribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional*
dc.contributor.funderInstituto de Salud Carlos III 
dc.identifier.journalEnvironment internationales_ES
dc.repisalud.centroISCIII::Escuela Nacional de Sanidades_ES
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/ENPY 1133/16es_ES
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/ENPY 107/18es_ES
dc.rights.accessRightsopen accesses_ES

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