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dc.contributor.authorGarcía-García, David
dc.contributor.authorVigo, María Isabel
dc.contributor.authorFonfría, Eva S
dc.contributor.authorHerrador, Zaida 
dc.contributor.authorNavarro, Miriam
dc.contributor.authorBordehore, Cesar
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-28T11:17:03Z
dc.date.available2022-03-28T11:17:03Z
dc.date.issued2021-05
dc.identifier.citationSci Rep . 2021 May 28;11(1):11274.es_ES
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/13863
dc.description.abstractThe number of new daily infections is one of the main parameters to understand the dynamics of an epidemic. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, however, such information has been underestimated. Here, we propose a retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from daily deaths, because those are usually more accurately documented. Given the incubation period, the time from illness onset to death, and the case fatality ratio, the date of death can be estimated from the date of infection. We apply this idea conversely to estimate infections from deaths. This methodology is applied to Spain and its 19 administrative regions. Our results showed that probable daily infections during the first wave were between 35 and 42 times more than those officially documented on 14 March, when the national government decreed a national lockdown and 9 times more than those documented by the updated version of the official data. The national lockdown had a strong effect on the growth rate of virus transmission, which began to decrease immediately. Finally, the first inferred infection in Spain is about 43 days before the official data were available during the first wave. The current official data show delays of 15-30 days in the first infection relative to the inferred infections in 63% of the regions. In summary, we propose a methodology that allows reinterpretation of official daily infections, improving data accuracy in infection magnitude and dates because it assimilates valuable information from the National Seroprevalence Studies.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipThe funding was provided by Universidad de Alicante (COVID-19 2020-41.30.6P.0016) and also by Ajuntament de Dénia - Montgó-Dénia Research Station (2020-41.30.6O.00.01).es_ES
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.publisherNature Publishing Group es_ES
dc.type.hasVersionVoRes_ES
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/*
dc.subjectBiological modelses_ES
dc.subjectEpidemiologyes_ES
dc.subjectInfectious diseaseses_ES
dc.subjectPopulation dynamicses_ES
dc.subjectPublic healthes_ES
dc.subjectSoftwarees_ES
dc.subjectViral infectiones_ES
dc.titleRetrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from deaths (REMEDID) in COVID-19: the Spain case studyes_ES
dc.typejournal articlees_ES
dc.rights.licenseAtribución 4.0 Internacional*
dc.identifier.pubmedID34050198es_ES
dc.format.volume11es_ES
dc.format.number1es_ES
dc.format.page11274es_ES
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41598-021-90051-7es_ES
dc.contributor.funderUniversity of Alicante (España) es_ES
dc.contributor.funderAjuntament de Dénia (España)es_ES
dc.description.peerreviewedes_ES
dc.identifier.e-issn2045-2322es_ES
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90051-7es_ES
dc.identifier.journalScientific reportses_ES
dc.repisalud.centroISCIII::Centro Nacional de Epidemiologíaes_ES
dc.repisalud.institucionISCIIIes_ES
dc.rights.accessRightsopen accesses_ES


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Atribución 4.0 Internacional
Este Item está sujeto a una licencia Creative Commons: Atribución 4.0 Internacional