The time trend temperature-mortality as a factor of uncertainty analysis of impacts of future heat waves

Abstract

Recently, the paper by Wu et al. (2014), “Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States,” concluded that “the major sources of uncertainty were the relative risk estimates for mortality on heat wave versus non–heat wave days, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions.” One conclusion to be drawn from reading this manuscript might be that a good definition of “heat wave” based on epidemiological studies and accurate determination of the risks associated with such temperatures would greatly reduce these uncertainties. Although the authors allude to the possible geographic variability of these risks, there is nevertheless no mention of the possible evolution over time that can take place both in heat-wave definition temperatures and in the modifications of these possible impacts, beyond those stemming from the use of air-conditioning equipment and the implementation of heat-wave prevention plans.