Gálvez, RosaDescalzo, Miguel AngelGuerrero, IreneMiró, GuadalupeMolina, Ricardo2024-11-192024-11-192011-07Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2011 Jul;11(7):799-806.1530-3667https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/25536Leishmaniosis caused by Leishmania infantum is a widespread zoonotic disease that is endemic in the Mediterranean basin. Based on prior point abundance data for the two sand fly vectors of leishmaniosis in the Madrid region (Phlebotomus perniciosus and Phlebotomus ariasi), models were constructed to predict the spatial distribution patterns of these vectors. The models were obtained by negative binomial regression of several environmental variables and then used to map vector distributions. To validate the maps, we used serological prevalence data of Leishmania infection in dogs and incidence data were obtained through questionnaires completed by veterinarians in the region. Seropositive dogs and veterinary clinics registering a higher incidence of canine leishmaniosis appeared closer to our modeled vector foci. In the face of climate change, we simulated the future distributions of the sand flies for each third of the 21st century and predicted their spread in the region.engSMURhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Phlebotomus perniciosusPhlebotomus ariasiLeishmania infantumClimate changeGISSpatial analysisAnimalsClimate ChangeCross-Sectional StudiesDog DiseasesDogsGeographic Information SystemsInsect VectorsLeishmania infantumLeishmaniasisMaps as TopicModels, BiologicalPopulation DensityPsychodidaeRegression AnalysisSpainSurveys and QuestionnairesAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International21417927117799-80610.1089/vbz.2010.01091557-7759Vector borne and zoonotic diseasesopen access