Cromwell, Elizabeth AOsborne, Joshua C PUnnasch, Thomas RBasáñez, Maria-GloriaGass, Katherine MBarbre, Kira AHill, ElexJohnson, Kimberly BDonkers, Katie MShirude, ShreyaSchmidt, Chris AAdekanmbi, VictorAdetokunboh, Olatunji OAfarideh, MohsenAhmadpour, EhsanAhmed, Muktar BeshirAkalu, Temesgen YihunieAl-Aly, ZiyadAlanezi, Fahad MashhourAlanzi, Turki MAlipour, VahidAndrei, Catalina LilianaAnsari, FereshtehAnsha, Mustafa GeletoAnvari, DavoodAppiah, Seth Christopher YawArabloo, JalalArnold, Benjamin FAusloos, MarcelAyanore, Martin AmogreBaig, Atif AminBanach, MaciejBarac, AleksandraBärnighausen, Till WinfriedBayati, MohsenBhattacharyya, KrittikaBhutta, Zulfiqar ABibi, SadiaBijani, AliBohlouli, SomayehBohluli, MahdiBrady, Oliver JBragazzi, Nicola LuigiButt, Zahid ACarvalho, FélixChatterjee, SouranshuChattu, Vijay KumarChattu, Soosanna KumaryCormier, Natalie MariaDahlawi, Saad M ADamiani, GiovanniDaoud, FarahDarwesh, Aso MohammadDaryani, AhmadDeribe, KebedeDharmaratne, Samath DhammindaDiaz, DanielDo, Hoa ThiEl Sayed Zaki, MaysaaEl Tantawi, MahaElemineh, Demelash AbewaFaraj, AnwarFasihi Harandi, MajidFatahi, YousefFeigin, Valery LFernandes, EduardaFoigt, Nataliya AForoutan, MasoudFranklin, Richard CharlesGubari, Mohammed Ibrahim MohialdeenGuido, DavideGuo, YumingHaj-Mirzaian, ArvinHamagharib Abdullah, KanaanHamidi, SamerHerteliu, ClaudiuHidru, Hagos Degefa deHigazi, Tarig BHossain, NazninHosseinzadeh, MehdiHouseh, MowafaIlesanmi, Olayinka StephenIlic, Milena DIlic, Irena MIqbal, UsmanIrvani, Seyed Sina NaghibiJha, Ravi PrakashJoukar, FarahnazJozwiak, Jacek JerzyKabir, ZubairKalankesh, Leila RKalhor, RohollahKarami Matin, BehzadKarimi, Salah EddinKasaeian, AmirKavetskyy, TarasKayode, Gbenga AKazemi Karyani, AliKelbore, Abraham GetachewKeramati, MaryamKhalilov, RovshanKhan, Ejaz AhmadKhan, Md Nuruzzaman NuruzzamanKhatab, KhaledKhater, Mona MKianipour, NedaKibret, Kelemu TilahunKim, Yun JinKosen, SoewartaKrohn, Kris JKusuma, DianLa Vecchia, CarloLansingh, Van CharlesLee, Paul HLeGrand, Kate ELi, ShanshanLongbottom, JoshuaMagdy Abd El Razek, HassanMagdy Abd El Razek, MuhammedMaleki, AfshinMamun, Abdullah AManafi, AliManafi, NavidMansournia, Mohammad AliMartins-Melo, Francisco RogerlândioMazidi, MohsenMcAlinden, ColmMeharie, Birhanu GetaMendoza, WalterMengesha, Endalkachew WorkuMengistu, Desalegn TadeseMereta, Seid TikuMestrovic, TomislavMiller, Ted RMiri, MohammadMoghadaszadeh, MasoudMohammadian-Hafshejani, AbdollahMohammadpourhodki, RezaMohammed, ShafiuMohammed, SalahuddinMoradi, MasoudMoradzadeh, RahmatollahMoraga, PaulaMosser, Jonathan FNaderi, MehdiNagarajan, Ahamarshan JayaramanNaik, GurudattaNegoi, IonutNguyen, Cuong TatNguyen, Huong Lan ThiNguyen, Trang HuyenNikbakhsh, RajanOancea, BogdanOlagunju, Tinuke OOlagunju, Andrew TOmar Bali, AhmedOnwujekwe, Obinna EPana, AdrianPourjafar, HadiRahim, FakherRahman, Mohammad Hifz UrRathi, PriyaRawaf, SalmanRawaf, David LaithRawassizadeh, RezaResnikoff, SergeReta, Melese AbateRezapour, AzizRubagotti, EnricoRubino, SalvatoreSadeghi, EhsanSaghafipour, AbedinSajadi, S MohammadSamy, Abdallah MSarmiento Suárez, RodrigoSawhney, MonikaSchipp, Megan FShaheen, Amira AShaikh, Masood AliShamsizadeh, MortezaSharafi, KiomarsSheikh, AzizShetty, B Suresh KumarShin, Jae IlShivakumar, K MSimonetti, BiagioSingh, Jasvinder ASkiadaresi, EiriniSoheili, AminSoltani, ShahinSpurlock, Emma ElizabethSufiyan, Mu'awiyyah BabaleTabuchi, TakahiroTapak, LeiliThompson, Robert LThomson, Alan JTraini, EugenioTran, Bach XuanUllah, IrfanUllah, SaifUneke, Chigozie JesseUnnikrishnan, BhaskaranUthman, Olalekan AVinkeles Melchers, Natalie V SViolante, Francesco SWolde, Haileab FekaduWonde, Tewodros EsheteYamada, TomohideYaya, SanniYazdi-Feyzabadi, VahidYip, PaulYonemoto, NaohiroYousof, Hebat-Allah Salah AYu, ChuanhuaYu, YongYusefzadeh, HasanZaki, LeilaZaman, Sojib BinZamanian, MaryamZhang, Zhi-JiangZhang, YunquanZiapour, ArashHay, Simon IPigott, David M2022-07-212022-07-212021-07-28PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2021 Jul 28;15(7):e0008824.http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/14768Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.engVoRhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Disease EradicationAfricaEnvironmentForecastingHumansIvermectinMass Drug AdministrationOnchocerciasisROC CurveAtribución 4.0 Internacional34319976157e000882410.1371/journal.pntd.00088241935-2735PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseasesopen access