2026-07-21T14:41:17Zhttps://repisalud.isciii.es/rest/oai/request

oai:repisalud.isciii.es:20.500.12105/89432025-06-19T10:03:08Zcom_20.500.12105_2052com_20.500.12105_2051col_20.500.12105_19613

00925njm 22002777a 4500 dc Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez author Diaz-Jimenez, Julio author Hooyberghs, Hans author Lauwaet, Dirk author De Ridder, Koen author Linares-Gil, Cristina author Carmona-Alferez, Rocio author Ortiz Burgos, Cristina author Kendrovski, Vladimir author Aerts, Raf author Van Nieuwenhuyse, An author Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, Maria author 2018-02 BACKGROUND: Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in several European cities. Heat-related mortality and morbidity is likely to increase under climate change scenarios without adequate prevention based on locally relevant evidence. METHODS: We modelled the urban climate of Antwerp for the summer season during the period 1986-2015, and projected summer daily temperatures for two periods, one in the near (2026-2045) and one in the far future (2081-2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We then analysed the relationship between temperature and mortality, as well as with hospital admissions for the period 2009-2013, and estimated the projected mortality in the near future and far future periods under changing climate and population, assuming alternatively no acclimatization and acclimatization based on a constant threshold percentile temperature. RESULTS: During the sample period 2009-2013 we observed an increase in daily mortality from a maximum daily temperature of 26°C, or the 89th percentile of the maximum daily temperature series. The annual average heat-related mortality in this period was 13.4 persons (95% CI: 3.8-23.4). No effect of heat was observed in the case of hospital admissions due to cardiorespiratory causes. Under a no acclimatization scenario, annual average heat-related mortality is multiplied by a factor of 1.7 in the near future (24.1deaths/year CI 95%: 6.78-41.94) and by a factor of 4.5 in the far future (60.38deaths/year CI 95%: 17.00-105.11). Under a heat acclimatization scenario, mortality does not increase significantly in the near or in the far future. CONCLUSION: These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate, and the calibration of existing prevention activities in light of locally relevant evidence. Environ Int. 2018 Feb;111:135-143. 10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.012 1873-6750 0160-4120 Environment international 29207285 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/8943 Antwerp Climate change Heat-related hospital admissions Heat-related mortality Heatwaves Heat and health in Antwerp under climate change: Projected impacts and implications for prevention