2026-08-05T15:45:33Zhttps://repisalud.isciii.es/rest/oai/request

oai:repisalud.isciii.es:20.500.12105/68112024-10-07T10:52:08Zcom_20.500.12105_2052com_20.500.12105_2051col_20.500.12105_19608

00925njm 22002777a 4500 dc Pollan-Santamaria, Marina author Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto author Ardanaz, Eva author Argüelles, Marcial author Martos, Carmen author Galcerán, Jaume author Sánchez-Pérez, María-José author Chirlaque, María-Dolores author Larrañaga, Nerea author Martínez-Cobo, Ruth author Tobalina, María-Cres author Vidal, Enric author Marcos-Gragera, Rafael author Mateos, Antonio author Garau, Isabel author Rojas-Martín, María-Dolores author Jiménez, Rosario author Torrella-Ramos, Ana author Perucha, Josefina author Pérez-de-Rada, Maria-Eugenia author González, Susana author Rabanaque, María-José author Borràs, Joan author Navarro, Carmen author Hernández, Esther author Izquierdo, Angel author Lopez-Abente, Gonzalo author Martínez, Carmen author 2009-11-18 BACKGROUND: Since the 1980s, Spain experienced two decades of sharply increasing breast cancer incidence. Declines in breast cancer incidence have recently been reported in many developed countries. We examined whether a similar downturn might have taken place in Spain in recent years. METHODS: Cases of invasive female breast cancer were drawn from all population-based Spanish cancer registries that had at least 10 years of uninterrupted registration over the period 1980-2004. Overall and age-specific changes in incidence rates were evaluated using change-point Poisson models, which allow for accurate detection and estimation of trend changes. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: A total of 80,453 incident cases of invasive breast cancer were identified. Overall age- and registry-adjusted incidence rates rose by 2.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.7% to 3.1%) annually during the 1980s and 1990s; there was a statistically significant change in this trend in 2001 (95% CI = 1998 to 2004; P value for the existence of a change point <.001), after which incidence declined annually by 3.0% (95% CI = 1.8% to 4.1%). This trend differed by age group: There was a steady increase in incidence for women younger than 45 years, an abrupt downturn in 2001 for women aged 45-64 years, and a gradual leveling off in 1995 for women aged 65 years or older. Separate analyses for registries that had at least 15 years of uninterrupted registration detected a statistically significant interruption of the previous upward trend in breast cancer incidence in provinces that had aggressive breast cancer screening programs and high screening participation rates, including Navarra (change point = 1991, P < .001), Granada (change point = 2002, P = .003), Bizkaia (change point = 1998, P < .001), Gipuzkoa (change point = 1998, P = .001), and Araba (change point = 1997, P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: The recent downturn in breast cancer incidence among Spanish women older than 45 years is best explained by a period effect linked to screening saturation. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2009; 101(22): 1584–1591. 10.1093/jnci/djp358 1460-2105 Journal of the National Cancer Institute 19861303 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/6811 Recent changes in breast cancer incidence in Spain, 1980-2004