2026-08-29T08:19:01Zhttps://repisalud.isciii.es/rest/oai/requestoai:repisalud.isciii.es:20.500.12105/259962025-12-18T13:00:39Zcom_20.500.12105_2052com_20.500.12105_2051col_20.500.12105_19608
Repisalud
author
García-García, David
author
Fernandez Martinez, Beatriz
author
Bartumeus, Frederic
author
Gomez-Barroso, Diana
funder
Fundación La Caixa
2025-01-10T17:22:51Z
2025-01-10T17:22:51Z
2024-05-27
García-García D, Fernández-Martínez B, Bartumeus F, Gómez-Barroso D. Modeling the Regional Distribution of International Travelers in Spain to Estimate Imported Cases of Dengue and Malaria: Statistical Inference and Validation Study. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2024 May 27;10:e51191.
10.2196/51191
2369-2960
JMIR public health and surveillance
38801767
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/25996
Background: Understanding the patterns of disease importation through international travel is paramount for effective public health interventions and global disease surveillance. While global airline network data have been used to assist in outbreak prevention and effective preparedness, accurately estimating how these imported cases disseminate locally in receiving countries remains a challenge. Objective: This study aimed to describe and understand the regional distribution of imported cases of dengue and malaria upon arrival in Spain via air travel. Methods: We have proposed a method to describe the regional distribution of imported cases of dengue and malaria based on the computation of the "travelers' index" from readily available socioeconomic data. We combined indicators representing the main drivers for international travel, including tourism, economy, and visits to friends and relatives, to measure the relative appeal of each region in the importing country for travelers. We validated the resulting estimates by comparing them with the reported cases of malaria and dengue in Spain from 2015 to 2019. We also assessed which motivation provided more accurate estimates for imported cases of both diseases. Results: The estimates provided by the best fitted model showed high correlation with notified cases of malaria (0.94) and dengue (0.87), with economic motivation being the most relevant for imported cases of malaria and visits to friends and relatives being the most relevant for imported cases of dengue. Conclusions: Factual descriptions of the local movement of international travelers may substantially enhance the design of cost-effective prevention policies and control strategies, and essentially contribute to decision-support systems. Our approach contributes in this direction by providing a reliable estimate of the number of imported cases of nonendemic diseases, which could be generalized to other applications. Realistic risk assessments will be obtained by combining this regional predictor with the observed local distribution of vectors.
eng
Epidemiology
Imported infections
Modeling
Surveillance system
Vector-borne diseases
Modeling the Regional Distribution of International Travelers in Spain to Estimate Imported Cases of Dengue and Malaria: Statistical Inference and Validation Study
research article
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
URL
https://repisalud.isciii.es/bitstreams/33b44b15-2720-45e8-83e6-208570894ead/download
File
MD5
51bb4eb8cb9fdc6063f4057d2a6a724e
980443
application/pdf
ModelingRegionalDistributionInternational_2024.pdf
URL
https://repisalud.isciii.es/bitstreams/9a25bfd6-9880-4f1a-b880-005dea57dafe/download
File
MD5
bfefee487c739f344ef9ad88d234c2da
2044620
application/pdf
Supplementary_ModelingRegionalDistributionInternational_2024.pdf