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oai:repisalud.isciii.es:20.500.12105/255362025-12-18T12:56:50Zcom_20.500.12105_2052com_20.500.12105_2051col_20.500.12105_19609

00925njm 22002777a 4500 dc Gálvez, Rosa author Descalzo, Miguel Angel author Guerrero, Irene author Miró, Guadalupe author Molina, Ricardo author 2011-07 Leishmaniosis caused by Leishmania infantum is a widespread zoonotic disease that is endemic in the Mediterranean basin. Based on prior point abundance data for the two sand fly vectors of leishmaniosis in the Madrid region (Phlebotomus perniciosus and Phlebotomus ariasi), models were constructed to predict the spatial distribution patterns of these vectors. The models were obtained by negative binomial regression of several environmental variables and then used to map vector distributions. To validate the maps, we used serological prevalence data of Leishmania infection in dogs and incidence data were obtained through questionnaires completed by veterinarians in the region. Seropositive dogs and veterinary clinics registering a higher incidence of canine leishmaniosis appeared closer to our modeled vector foci. In the face of climate change, we simulated the future distributions of the sand flies for each third of the 21st century and predicted their spread in the region. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2011 Jul;11(7):799-806. 10.1089/vbz.2010.0109 1557-7759 1530-3667 Vector borne and zoonotic diseases 21417927 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/25536 Phlebotomus perniciosus Phlebotomus ariasi Leishmania infantum Climate change GIS Spatial analysis Mapping the current distribution and predicted spread of the leishmaniosis sand fly vector in the madrid region (Spain) based on environmental variables and expected climate change