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00925njm 22002777a 4500 dc Caravaca-Fontán, Fernando author Rivero, Marta author Cavero, Teresa author Díaz-Encarnación, Montserrat author Cabello, Virginia author Ariceta, Gema author Quintana, Luis F author Marco, Helena author Barros, Xoana author Ramos, Natalia author Rodríguez-Mendiola, Nuria author Cruz, Sonia author Fernández-Juárez, Gema author Rodríguez, Adela author Pérez de José, Ana author Rabasco, Cristina author Rodado, Raquel author Fernández, Loreto author Pérez-Gómez, Vanessa author Ávila, Ana author Bravo, Luis author Espinosa, Natalia author Allende Burgos, Natalia author Sanchez de la Nieta, Maria Dolores author Rodríguez, Eva author Olea, Teresa author Melgosa, Marta author Huerta, Ana author Miquel, Rosa author Mon, Carmen author Fraga, Gloria author de Lorenzo, Alberto author Draibe, Juliana author González, Fayna author Shabaka, Amir author López-Rubio, Maria Esperanza author Fenollosa, María Ángeles author Martín-Penagos, Luis author Da Silva, Iara author Alonso Titos, Juana author Rodriguez de Cordoba, Santiago author Goicoechea de Jorge, Elena author Praga, Manuel author 2022 Background: C3 glomerulopathy is a rare and heterogeneous complement-driven disease. It is often challenging to accurately predict in clinical practice the individual kidney prognosis at baseline. We herein sought to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict long-term kidney survival. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, multicenter observational cohort study in 35 nephrology departments belonging to the Spanish Group for the Study of Glomerular Diseases. The dataset was randomly divided into a training group (n = 87) and a validation group (n = 28). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to screen the main predictors of kidney outcome and to build the nomogram. The accuracy of the nomogram was assessed by discrimination and risk calibration in the training and validation sets. Results: The study group comprised 115 patients, of whom 46 (40%) reached kidney failure in a median follow-up of 49 months (range 24-112). No significant differences were observed in baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), proteinuria or total chronicity score of kidney biopsies, between patients in the training versus those in the validation set. The selected variables by LASSO were eGFR, proteinuria and total chronicity score. Based on a Cox model, a nomogram was developed for the prediction of kidney survival at 1, 2, 5 and 10 years from diagnosis. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.860 (95% confidence interval 0.834-0.887) and calibration plots showed optimal agreement between predicted and observed outcomes. Conclusions: We constructed and validated a practical nomogram with good discrimination and calibration to predict the risk of kidney failure in C3 glomerulopathy patients at 1, 2, 5 and 10 years. Caravaca-Fontán F, Rivero M, Cavero T, Díaz-Encarnación M, Cabello V, Ariceta G, et al. Development and validation of a nomogram to predict kidney survival at baseline in patients with C3 glomerulopathy. Clin Kidney J. 2022; 15(9):1737-1746. 10.1093/ckj/sfac108 2048-8505 Clinical kidney journal http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13003/18088 36003665 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/23415 806708500001 Development and validation of a nomogram to predict kidney survival at baseline in patients with C3 glomerulopathy