2026-06-14T00:44:08Zhttps://repisalud.isciii.es/rest/oai/requestoai:repisalud.isciii.es:20.500.12105/150012025-03-10T13:31:20Zcom_20.500.12105_2052com_20.500.12105_2051com_20.500.12105_15322col_20.500.12105_19608col_20.500.12105_16963
Repisalud
author
Martínez-Alés, Gonzalo
author
Domingo-Relloso, Arce
author
Arribas, José R
author
Quintana-Díaz, Manuel
author
Hernán, Miguel A
author
COVID@HULP Group
2022-09-19T13:48:24Z
2022-09-19T13:48:24Z
2021-05
Am J Public Health. 2021 May;111(5):923-926.
10.2105/AJPH.2020.306151
1541-0048
American journal of public health
33734835
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/15001
Objectives. To estimate the critical care bed capacity that would be required to admit all critical COVID-19 cases in a setting of unchecked SARS-CoV-2 transmission, both with and without elderly-specific protection measures. Methods. Using electronic health records of all 2432 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in a large hospital in Madrid, Spain, between February 28 and April 23, 2020, we estimated the number of critical care beds needed to admit all critical care patients. To mimic a hypothetical intervention that halves SARS-CoV-2 infections among the elderly, we randomly excluded 50% of patients aged 65 years and older. Results. Critical care requirements peaked at 49 beds per 100 000 on April 1-2 weeks after the start of a national lockdown. After randomly excluding 50% of elderly patients, the estimated peak was 39 beds per 100 000. Conclusions. Under unchecked SARS-CoV-2 transmission, peak critical care requirements in Madrid were at least fivefold higher than prepandemic capacity. Under a hypothetical intervention that halves infections among the elderly, critical care peak requirements would have exceeded the prepandemic capacity of most high-income countries. Public Health Implications. Pandemic control strategies that rely exclusively on protecting the elderly are likely to overwhelm health care systems.
eng
Critical Care Requirements Under Uncontrolled Transmission of SARS-CoV-2
research article
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URL
https://repisalud.isciii.es/bitstreams/afb193c9-3740-4187-b693-8c5efc3440ac/download
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2efc1426075123dceaad37f423625527
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application/pdf
CriticalCareRequirementsUnder_2021.pdf
URL
https://repisalud.isciii.es/bitstreams/d80d79a2-1ad8-4467-9440-114ad84a173d/download
File
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CriticalCareRequirementsUnder_2021.pdf.txt