2026-06-14T02:29:51Zhttps://repisalud.isciii.es/rest/oai/request

oai:repisalud.isciii.es:20.500.12105/150012025-03-10T13:31:20Zcom_20.500.12105_2052com_20.500.12105_2051com_20.500.12105_15322col_20.500.12105_19608col_20.500.12105_16963

00925njm 22002777a 4500 dc Martínez-Alés, Gonzalo author Domingo-Relloso, Arce author Arribas, José R author Quintana-Díaz, Manuel author Hernán, Miguel A author COVID@HULP Group author 2021-05 Objectives. To estimate the critical care bed capacity that would be required to admit all critical COVID-19 cases in a setting of unchecked SARS-CoV-2 transmission, both with and without elderly-specific protection measures. Methods. Using electronic health records of all 2432 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in a large hospital in Madrid, Spain, between February 28 and April 23, 2020, we estimated the number of critical care beds needed to admit all critical care patients. To mimic a hypothetical intervention that halves SARS-CoV-2 infections among the elderly, we randomly excluded 50% of patients aged 65 years and older. Results. Critical care requirements peaked at 49 beds per 100 000 on April 1-2 weeks after the start of a national lockdown. After randomly excluding 50% of elderly patients, the estimated peak was 39 beds per 100 000. Conclusions. Under unchecked SARS-CoV-2 transmission, peak critical care requirements in Madrid were at least fivefold higher than prepandemic capacity. Under a hypothetical intervention that halves infections among the elderly, critical care peak requirements would have exceeded the prepandemic capacity of most high-income countries. Public Health Implications. Pandemic control strategies that rely exclusively on protecting the elderly are likely to overwhelm health care systems. Am J Public Health. 2021 May;111(5):923-926. 10.2105/AJPH.2020.306151 1541-0048 American journal of public health 33734835 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/15001 Critical Care Requirements Under Uncontrolled Transmission of SARS-CoV-2