2026-05-22T09:32:16Zhttps://repisalud.isciii.es/rest/oai/requestoai:repisalud.isciii.es:20.500.12105/144332024-09-27T17:46:10Zcom_20.500.12105_2052com_20.500.12105_2051col_20.500.12105_19608
Repisalud
author
García-García, David
author
Herranz-Hernández, Rafael
author
Rojas-Benedicto, Ayelén
author
Leon-Gomez, Inmaculada
author
Larrauri, Amparo
author
Peñuelas, Marina
author
Guerrero-Vadillo, María
author
Ramis, Rebeca
author
Gomez-Barroso, Diana
funder
Instituto de Salud Carlos III
2022-05-20T10:00:44Z
2022-05-20T10:00:44Z
2022-02-03
BMC Public Health. 2022 Feb 3;22(1):216.
10.1186/s12889-022-12626-x
1471-2458
BMC Public Health
35109838
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12105/14433
Background: A unique policy of perimeter closures of Basic Health Zones (small administrative health units) was implemented in the Autonomous Community of Madrid from September 21st 2020 to May 23rd 2021 to face the COVID-19 pandemic. Aim: To assess the impact of local perimeter confinements on the 14-days cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 during the second wave of the pandemic in Madrid, Spain. Methods: We compare the errors in estimation of two families of mathematical models: ones that include the perimeter closures as explanatory covariables and ones that do not, in search of a significant improvement in estimation of one family over the other. We incorporate leave-one-out cross-validation, and at each step of this process we select the best model in AIC score from a family of 15 differently tuned ones. Results: The two families of models provided very similar estimations, for a 1- to 3-weeks delay in observed cumulative incidence, and also when restricting the analysis to only those Basic Health Zones that were subject to at least one closure during the time under study. In all cases the correlation between the errors yielded by both families of models was higher than 0.98 (±10- 3 95% CI), and the average difference of estimated 14-days cumulative incidence was smaller than 1.49 (±0.33 95% CI). Conclusion: Our analysis suggests that the perimeter closures by Basic Health Zone did not have a significant effect on the epidemic curve in Madrid.
eng
COVID-19
Madrid
Perimeter closures
Spain
Perimeter confinements of basic health zones and COVID-19 incidence in Madrid, Spain
journal article
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URL
https://repisalud.isciii.es/bitstreams/b67336fa-fc84-4541-87cc-c36edecb9113/download
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PerimeterConfinementsBasicHealth_2022.pdf
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https://repisalud.isciii.es/bitstreams/f1f90349-30d0-4fe2-bfbf-954fcb58b4a2/download
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text/plain
PerimeterConfinementsBasicHealth_2022.pdf.txt