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dc.contributor.authorLopez-Abente, Gonzalo 
dc.contributor.authorGarcía-Gómez, Montserrat
dc.contributor.authorMenéndez-Navarro, Alfredo
dc.contributor.authorFernandez-Navarro, Pablo L 
dc.contributor.authorRamis, Rebeca 
dc.contributor.authorGarcía-Pérez, Javier 
dc.contributor.authorCervantes-Amat, Marta 
dc.contributor.authorFerreras, Eva 
dc.contributor.authorJiménez-Muñoz, María
dc.contributor.authorPastor-Barriuso, Roberto
dc.identifier.citationBMC Cancer. 2013 Nov 6;13:528.es_ES
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: A total of 2,514,346 metric tons (Mt) of asbestos were imported into Spain from 1906 until the ban on asbestos in 2002. Our objective was to study pleural cancer mortality trends as an indicator of mesothelioma mortality and update mortality predictions for the periods 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 in Spain. METHODS: Log-linear Poisson models were fitted to study the effect of age, period of death and birth cohort (APC) on mortality trends. Change points in cohort- and period-effect curvatures were assessed using segmented regression. Fractional power-link APC models were used to predict mortality until 2020. In addition, an alternative model based on national asbestos consumption figures was also used to perform long-term predictions. RESULTS: Pleural cancer deaths increased across the study period, rising from 491 in 1976-1980 to 1,249 in 2006-2010. Predictions for the five-year period 2016-2020 indicated a total of 1,319 pleural cancer deaths (264 deaths/year). Forecasts up to 2020 indicated that this increase would continue, though the age-adjusted rates showed a levelling-off in male mortality from 2001 to 2005, corresponding to the lower risk in post-1960 generations. Among women, rates were lower and the mortality trend was also different, indicating that occupational exposure was possibly the single factor having most influence on pleural cancer mortality. CONCLUSION: The cancer mortality-related consequences of human exposure to asbestos are set to persist and remain in evidence until the last surviving members of the exposed cohorts have disappeared. It can thus be assumed that occupationally-related deaths due to pleural mesothelioma will continue to occur in Spain until at least 2040.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipThe study was partially supported by a research grant from the Spanish Health Research Fund (FIS PI11/00871) and the HAR2009-07543 project of the Ministry of Science and Innovation. The Department of Labour of the Government of Catalonia provided the asbestos consumption data.es_ES
dc.publisherBioMed Central (BMC) es_ES
dc.subject.meshAdolescent es_ES
dc.subject.meshAdult es_ES
dc.subject.meshAge Factors es_ES
dc.subject.meshAged es_ES
dc.subject.meshAged, 80 and over es_ES
dc.subject.meshAsbestos es_ES
dc.subject.meshChild es_ES
dc.subject.meshChild, Preschool es_ES
dc.subject.meshEnvironmental Exposure es_ES
dc.subject.meshCircumcision, Female es_ES
dc.subject.meshHistory, 20th Century es_ES
dc.subject.meshHistory, 21st Century es_ES
dc.subject.meshHumans es_ES
dc.subject.meshInfant es_ES
dc.subject.meshInfant, Newborn es_ES
dc.subject.meshMale es_ES
dc.subject.meshMiddle Aged es_ES
dc.subject.meshPleural Neoplasms es_ES
dc.subject.meshSex Factors es_ES
dc.subject.meshSpain es_ES
dc.subject.meshYoung Adult es_ES
dc.titlePleural cancer mortality in Spain: time-trends and updating of predictions up to 2020es_ES
dc.typejournal articlees_ES
dc.rights.licenseAtribución 4.0 Internacional*
dc.contributor.funderInstituto de Salud Carlos III 
dc.contributor.funderMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) 
dc.identifier.journalBMC canceres_ES
dc.repisalud.centroISCIII::Centro Nacional de Epidemologíaes_ES
dc.rights.accessRightsopen accesses_ES

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